cubiculum auguria

Predictions

Bubbles, crashes, rallies, and corrections

The Efficient Crashes Optimizer (ECO) asset price model identifies signatures in price data indicating potential crashes or rallies and estimates the magnitudes, the probabilities, and the timing of expected moves.  Using a set of assets of interest in the current market, various predictions from the modelling process are highlighted in the table below. 

We track the simulated performance of this list by using the ‘hedge’ column to weight each asset return.  Note that some assets can be levered up to 2X.


ECO Bubble Predictions

  • Gold – Up again for the week; little change in metrics — maintain sell.
  • JETS ETF – Down for the week; expected return goes negative  — downgrade to hold.
  • Oil – Huge uptick for the week; expected return and return no correction both go positive — upgrade to hold.
  • USLargeCapGrowth – Another big week of gains; little change in metrics — maintain buy.
  • USSmallCapValue – Little change in metrics — maintain buy.
  • RealEstate ETF – Big gain for the week; little change in metrics — maintain buy.
  • TSLA –  Up huge in the past week; expected return and return no correction both go positive — upgrade to buy.
  • USUnvGradeBond – Another positive week as interest rates slipped; little change in metrics — maintain sell. 
  • Technology ETF – Another positive return for the week; expected return and return no correction both go positive — upgrade to buy.
  • HealthCare ETF – Little change in metrics — maintain buy.

For more details see ECO Explanatory Notes

“WEBSITE AND THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A SOURCE OF ADVICE OR CREDIT ANALYSIS WITH RESPECT TO THE MATERIAL PRESENTED, AND THE INFORMATION AND/OR DOCUMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS WEBSITE DO NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE.” 


ECO scores are an important input in the AugurMax investment process.  A powerful, cutting edge asset allocation engine is created when combining ECO scores with the RisKontroller optimizer.