AugurMax Asset Allocation Changes 2026-03-31
Equity exposure was increased at the end of March after stocks around the globe nosedived. The VIX moved up for a fourth month and was up sharply in March. Stocks underperformed the other broad asset classes. Because stock exposures were increased, their 2026-03-31 level pushes them more in line with their longer-term average. The small drop in Bond exposures means they are now a bit less than their long-term average weighting. The prescribed Currency exposure was throttled back to zero after a series of raises. Commodity exposure is positive and above its longer term weighting.
Equity additions were highly selective as Japan, US Large Caps, and Canada received allocations. Emerging Markets and US Small Caps were the only stocks cut. The VIX exposure was basically unchanged and its (small) short exposure essentially represents a bet on the US stock market. Interest sensitive US REITs were cut quite a bit but still represents a substantial long.
A few Bond asset classes had big subtractions including Emerging Markets, and UK Gilts. Tips were added to the most. Cash exposure moved down a bit but still represents a sizable risk-off bet.
There were big shifts within commodities where Corn received the most; Oil and NatGas were also added to whereas Gold was cut quite a bit.
Currency returns were down across the board in March as money flowed to the (safe haven) US Dollar. The Aussie Dollar and the Canada Dollar were added to the most while the Mexican Peso and the Japanese Yen were sliced.
Global stock returns lost considerable ground in March as the Israeli/US move on Iran triggered a juggernaut of concerns beginning with energy, then inflation, then changes in the direction of central bank policy moves, and ultimately global growth. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks as energy stocks were the only economic sector up in March. Bonds were not exempt from the global sell off and were down around the globe. US Treasuries underperformed US Tips hinting at a heightened inflation situation (see breakeven inflation rates). US Large Caps are still more than 30% above their April 2025 lows (see worst drawdowns) and hedge funds have fared well (albeit down in March). The prescribed changes herein are largely influenced by our ECO methodology. Performance results (on a stand-alone basis) for assets like Gold and others using our ECO metrics are shown here.
