AugurMax Asset Allocation Changes 2023-11-10
Equity exposure was pushed up after stocks surged in early November. Stocks are the largest broad asset class and are above their longer term average weighting. Bond exposures were also moved up a bit and are in line with their long term average weighting. There was a substantial drop in Currency exposures suggesting the dollar will strengthen even more. Commodities exposures were throttled back to a short. Commodities are below their long term average weighting.
Additional Equity exposures were concentrated in foreign stocks. Australia and Emerging Market stocks were raised dramatically. The VIX exposure was cut back so its negative weight essentially reduces equity exposure. US REITs were also added to.
Bond exposures were moved up in US Investment Grade and US Junk bonds while Ten Year Treasuries and Tips were reduced. Cash exposure was cut big time but remains a sizable weight.
Commodities dropped substantially with big decreases across the board.
The aggregate negative Currency exposure (indirectly) implies that US rates will be even higher relative to the rest of world in the short term. The Japanese Yen exposure is the largest.
Stocks jumped in November as equity returns favored higher growth names in technology and consumer cyclicals. Bonds around the globe also rose with US Treasuries outperforming Tips showing an easing of inflationary fears (see breakeven inflation rates). US Large Caps are now 28% above their October lows (see worst drawdowns) with November’s MTD bump up spurring that recovery. The prescribed changes are largely influenced by our ECO methodology. Performance results (on a stand-alone basis) for assets like Gold and others using our ECO metrics are shown here.